Mike Gillis....

Whats the problem? You'd think a meteor was about to hit the earth following the Vancouver Canucks announcement of Michael Gillis as the team's new General Manager. This guy is an excellent candidate. Here is why:

1. He is a former first round (5th overall) pick in the N.H.L. entry draft. His career was cut short due to injuries. However, he knows the game from playing at the highest level.

2. Following retirement he successfully completed a law degree at Queens University in Kingston, Ont. and later became a very successful player representative in the N.H.L. He isn't a dummy.

3. Throughout his tenure as a player's agent he has obviously made many connections in the NHL and understands how the business works.

4. He has negotiated contracts for the players and now gets the opportunity to negotiate them from the team's perspective.

5. And finally, perhaps most important in my mind, he isn't one of the current recycled GMs (boys club) that exists waiting in the wings for yet another kick at the cat.

Give this guy a chance :-) What do Canuck fans have to lose? 38 years and counting.

Blame it on the scouting staff for the Vancouver Canucks...

Thats the remedy for a futile perennial Vancouver Canucks team.

What have the Canucks lacked since the early 90's? Scoring...More specifically, scoring from their draft picks. Although the Canucks had a ton of scoring in the early 2000s, neither Morrison, Bertuzzi and Naslund were Canuck draft picks.

Here is a link to the history of the Canucks draft picks.

Lets think about who the Canucks have drafted in their 38 year existence that could be considered a prolific scorer...hmmmm Pavel Bure, with honorable mentions to Cam Neely (traded) and Rick Vaive (traded). The only player of those to go over 100 points in a season was Bure. Rick Vaive and Cam Neely each had three 50 plus goal seasons...but none with the Canucks....ouch!

Lets face it....The Vancouver Canucks organization has had an abysmal history of drafting its own scoring talent.

Pavel Bure. Vancouver Canucks only prolific goal scorer.

Their scouting team consists of:

Lorne Henning (director player personnel)
Stan Smyl (Director Player development)
Ron Delorme (Amateur Scout)
Jonathan Wall (manager scouting and player info.)

Were any of these guys on the scouting staff a big-time scorer/play maker in their career? NO.

Lorne Henning scored in Junior, but was a third/fourth line checking centre for the Islanders back in 70's who managed 13 goals twice.
Stan Smyl was not a big-time scorer ever. He was a good leader and captain that managed 38 goals one year for the Canucks in an era where some guys were scoring 60 plus goals.
Ron Delorme was a tough, fringe, grinder NHL player for the Colorado Rockies and Vancouver Canucks.
Jonathan Wall. No Bio. for him on the Canucks site. Nothing found in the internet.

To me it seems the best recruiter of talent is someone who possessed talent in abundance at the same level.


Note: One can argue that some of the Canucks rivals (eg. Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames) have plumbers for talent agents too, but both those franchises have won Stanley Cups in the past and both have drafted some serious scoring talent of their own.

Pure hype built it up, so fear and reality will tear it down...

One word for British Columbia's housing market.....ouch! This market, primarily in the lower mainland, has experienced the biggest price run-up in history since about 2002. The following post by GSE36 on BC Real Estate Talks says it all in my mind.....

"I have mentioned this b4, and I will mention it again. Many people are basing "correction estimates" based on regular real estate cycles. However, what we are experiencing right now is of historical proportions. We have NEVER experienced a cycle like this before. This is same as in the US (largest boom in history). Just look at the graphs (US, Canada, UK, etc) and you'll say it makes all the other cycles pale in comparison. Therefore, there is a chance that what will happen will likely be of historical proportions as well. Vancouver is basically a culmination of all the potential hype of a real estate asset bubble. You put all the factors together, and it creates for one heck of a hyped market: 1) strong west economy (really riding off of Calgary's fame) 2) consistently top city to live (but not considered world class by many) 3) running out of land (surrounded by waters, mountains, etc) 4) olympics 5) worldwide housing bubble (everybody in RE-mode) 6) low interest rates 7) rich foreigners "

Couldn't have said it better myself. The current situation in Vancouver's real estate market cannot be compared to anytime in history. The following graph summarizes this market's 30 year history and my plan :-)

What goes up must come down....short term???

You are smoking "crack" if you think the Canadian real estate market isn't due for a correction....how big? Who knows. Sure, the dynamics with the sub-prime mortgage situation and over borrowing might be more extreme in the U.S., but Canada has it's own ills that will cause this inevitable correction. Canadian Conservative M.P. Garth Turner says that Canada's upcoming bust in real estate is similar to that which is currently occurring in the U.S. due to the no money down/40 year mortgages. Perhaps we aren't as maxed out credit wise here in Canada, but whatever happens south of us generally effects us too. Bulls seem to always remind us that the lower mainland of British Columbia is unique and will not suffer the same fate as elsewhere on the globe, but I don't believe it for a second.

Another thing I read from posters on other sites is, "what has created the BC boom?" Some say that it is due to immigration, others say its the bullish economy, others say a great deal of it is due to offshore investing post Olympic hype....it makes sense that as all these factors have probably contributed to the 5 year run upwards in property values. However, I believe that once the real estate upswing in the lower mainland really began its drive northward that much of the run-up was due to pure hype and house flipping. I know many folk in the Surrey, Langley area that have enjoyed the recent gravy train by doing just that....house flipping.

I'm not an economist, but what I've learned is that the same hype that creates a frenzy of buying and ridiculous price run-ups can easily be converted to the words "we've peaked" sending the prices in the opposite direction...Down. In this sense, real estate price trends are very similar to the economy in general, once the word "recession" is actually uttered by financial analysts in the media people take notice and protect their hard earned money other ways.

If someone who is a current investor with a lot at stake or simply a home buyer who has just gotten into the market at current prices tells me that the market will just keep rising, I tune out and think bullshit! Of course they'll say that, they have a vested interest. On the flip side, there are those like me that are currently not property owners and want in and we'll root for the market to correct waiting for the first sign ready to tell all "I told you so!"

History in lower mainland real estate according to the following graph found at bcrealtor.com shows that although there have been previous rises and drops in the past, the over all trend is upwards long term for BC investors. That is good news for all!
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So once we know the market has reached its peak and prices for homes begin to fall, the new question to ponder is when have real estate values hit their bottom? That is what guys like me will be waiting for so we can buy our first home....affordably :-)